According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US is forecast to double gross crude oil exports to 4.2 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2024, as total crude and refined products will reach 9 million b/d. Based on these figures, the US is likely to become a net petroleum exporter by 2021, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, which is currently the largest oil exporter in the world, soon after.
Driven by shale oil growth, US crude production is predicted to comprise 70% of the rise in the world’s production capacity over the next five years, and will represent 75% of the growth in liquefied gas. The US surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia last year in crude oil production, with current output at approximately 12 million b/d. By the end of the IEA’s five-year forecast, US crude production is forecast to grow to 13.7 million b/d.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) production capacity has been affected by supply outages in Iran and Venezuela, resulting in output expected to decrease by 400,000 b/d up to 2024. OPEC decided to restrict crude output by a cumulative 1.2 million b/d for the first 6 months of 2019 in order to bring back balance to the oversupplied market, as the surplus led to oil prices plummeting approximately 40% in the fourth quarter 2018. Thanks to the cuts, oil prices have grown nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. The IEA forecasts that oil demand will increase at an average annual rate of 1.2 million b/d up to 2024, reaching 106.4 million b/d, a 7.3% rise from 2018.
Source: The Wall Street Journal